Since inception
+633.5%
S&P 500 +99.6% · through 2026-10-22
CAGR
+70.3%
S&P 500 +20.2% · through 2026-09
2026 YTD
+95.4%
S&P 500 +11.9%
Month to date
-0.40%
partial, through 2026-10-22
Max drawdown (month-end)
−18.7%
full history, 2023+
Volatility (ann.)
37.1%
S&P 500 12.5%
Sharpe / Sortino
1.50 / 5.69
excess of 3-month T-bill
% of months beating the NASDAQ Composite
64%
45 complete months
Growth of $10,000 (hypothetical, monthly) VAMI = index × 100 · log scale
Drawdown from peak month-end
Calendar-year returns
| Period | Portfolio | SPX | COMP | RUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +102.1% | +24.2% | +43.4% | +15.1% |
| 2024 | +7.3% | +23.3% | +28.6% | +10.0% |
| 2025 | +73.1% | +16.4% | +20.4% | +11.3% |
| 2026 YTD | +95.4% | +11.9% | +11.9% | +12.2% |
| Since inception | +633.5% | +99.6% | +148.5% | +58.1% |
| CAGR | +70.3% | +20.2% | +28.6% | +13.1% |
Portfolio statistics (Jan 2023 – 2026-09, 45 complete months)
| 2nd Shift | NASDAQ Comp. | Russell 2000 | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | ||||
| Compound RoR (CAGR) | +70.3% | +28.6% | +13.1% | +20.2% |
| Cumulative return | +637% | +157% | +59% | +99% |
| Largest month gain | +48.2% | +15.3% | +12.2% | +10.4% |
| Largest month loss | -7.8% | -8.2% | -8.4% | -5.8% |
| % positive months | 62% | 67% | 56% | 64% |
| Risk (monthly) | ||||
| Std deviation (ann.) | 37.1% | 17.2% | 19.6% | 12.5% |
| Sharpe (excess of T-bill) | 1.50 | 1.31 | 0.50 | 1.19 |
| Sortino (excess of T-bill) | 5.69 | 2.80 | 0.85 | 2.32 |
| Downside deviation (ann.) | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | -18.7% | -11.9% | -19.3% | -8.6% |
| Current drawdown (month-end) | -4.7% | -0.4% | -7.5% | -0.4% |
| Max DD length (mo) | 6 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Months to recover | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Vs benchmark (portfolio relative to each index) | ||||
| Annual alpha (Jensen, excess of T-bill) | +21.8% | +43.4% | +25.0% | |
| Beta | 1.52 | 1.26 | 2.07 | |
| Beta (excess returns) | 1.52 | 1.27 | 2.08 | |
| Correlation (monthly) | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.69 | |
| R² | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.48 | |
| Up capture | 146% | 181% | 228% | |
| Down capture | 10% | 36% | 94% | |
| Information ratio | 1.50 | 2.03 | 1.68 | |
| Tracking error (ann.) | 27.9% | 28.1% | 29.8% | |
| % months beating index | 64% | 67% | 56% | |
45 complete months, Jan 2023 – 2026-09 (partial 2026-10 excluded). Portfolio Sharpe, Sortino, alpha vs S&P and excess beta read from v_public_metrics; index figures use the same method. Up/down capture: geometric mean monthly return over index up/down months (as v_public_metrics).
Monthly returns (%)
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 13.5 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 5.3 | -3.8 | -1.2 | -3.9 | 28.6 | 8.1 | +102.1% |
| NASDAQ | 10.7 | -1.1 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | -2.2 | -5.8 | -2.8 | 10.7 | 5.5 | +43.4% |
| R2K | 9.7 | -1.8 | -5.0 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 8.0 | 6.1 | -5.2 | -6.0 | -6.9 | 8.8 | 12.1 | +15.1% |
| S&P | 6.2 | -2.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | -1.8 | -4.9 | -2.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | +24.2% |
| 2024 | -3.7 | 5.8 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 5.8 | -5.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 8.3 | -7.8 | +7.3% |
| NASDAQ | 1.0 | 6.1 | 1.8 | -4.4 | 6.9 | 6.0 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 6.2 | 0.5 | +28.6% |
| R2K | -3.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | -7.1 | 4.9 | -1.1 | 10.1 | -1.6 | 0.6 | -1.5 | 10.8 | -8.4 | +10.0% |
| S&P | 1.6 | 5.2 | 3.1 | -4.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 5.7 | -2.5 | +23.3% |
| 2025 | 2.5 | -1.0 | -6.3 | -7.4 | 15.5 | 17.2 | 0.5 | 17.7 | 25.3 | -3.5 | 2.2 | -0.8 | +73.1% |
| NASDAQ | 1.6 | -4.0 | -8.2 | 0.8 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | -1.5 | -0.5 | +20.4% |
| R2K | 2.6 | -5.5 | -7.0 | -2.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | -0.7 | +11.3% |
| S&P | 2.7 | -1.4 | -5.8 | -0.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | +16.4% |
| 2026 | 11.6 | -1.0 | -6.5 | 48.2 | 11.5 | 6.0 | -2.7 | 17.1 | -4.7 | -0.4 | +95.4% | ||
| NASDAQ | 0.9 | -3.4 | -4.8 | 15.3 | 8.4 | -2.8 | -3.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -3.2 | +11.9% | ||
| R2K | 5.3 | 0.7 | -5.2 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 3.6 | -3.1 | 0.9 | -5.4 | -0.5 | +12.2% | ||
| S&P | 1.4 | -0.9 | -5.1 | 10.4 | 5.2 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 2.6 | -0.5 | 0.2 | +12.0% |
Methodology & disclosures
- The portfolio series is a time-weighted return including dividends. Deposits and withdrawals are adjusted out; monthly returns are geometrically linked. Fee treatment pending confirmation.
- Track record starts January 2023. 2023–2024 figures are E*Trade month-end data (monthly only), pending statement verification; 2025 onward is IBKR daily data.
- Benchmarks — S&P 500 (^GSPC), NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC), Russell 2000 (^RUT) — are price return from month-end closes, dividends excluded (Jan 2023–Jul 2026 GOOGLEFINANCE; Aug 2026 onward Yahoo daily closes). Because the portfolio includes dividends and the indices do not, the comparison is flattered by roughly the index dividend yield (about 1.2–1.5% a year for the S&P 500).
- Max drawdown is measured on month-end values across the full history. Other risk statistics are derived from monthly returns.
- Daily max drawdown, IBKR 2025+: −28.4% (Feb–Apr 2025).
- Risk-free rate: 3-month T-bill, monthly (FRED TB3MS), via the rf_monthly table; monthly rate = (1+r)^(1/12)−1. Sharpe = mean monthly excess return × √12 ÷ std dev of monthly excess returns; Sortino uses downside deviation √mean(min(excess,0)²); alpha = 12 × (mean portfolio excess − β × mean index excess), β on excess returns. Source: v_public_metrics (Data Tracker) for the portfolio; the same method is applied to the indices.
- All statistics use the 45 complete months Jan 2023 – Sep 2026 (partial October excluded), except Since inception, 2026 YTD, month to date and the calendar-year returns, which run through 2026-10-22.
- The latest month is partial, through 2026-10-22.
- Personal account results. Not investment advice or an offer of any security or service. Past performance does not guarantee future results.